Nursing Shortage in the US: Key Insights and Current National and State Statistics (2026-2038)

Nursing has always been associated more with a vocation than a profession. However, the industry has enough so that, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), nurses now represent over 50% of the health workforce and are crucial to the entire U.S. healthcare industry. According to the latest 2025 occupational statistics, 5 out of the 20 fastest-growing occupations are in the nursing industry. The BLS also reports that several nursing roles top the list of occupations projected to see the highest net increase in new jobs by 2034, including Registered Nurses and Nurse Practitioners.

Although the statistics suggest continued employment growth, health professionals, administrations, and communities must address all contributing factors to the nursing shortage to meet these projections. 

Let’s find out which US states suffer the most, what the causes are, and what the solutions are.

National Nursing Shortage Statistics (2026-2038)

According to the updated Healthcare Workforce Projections issued by the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), the US is projected to experience shortages of licensed practical nurses and registered nurses, but not across nurse practitioner specializations.

Current Nursing Shortage Statistics (2026)

At the national level, the projected supply of all nursing staff in 2026 will account for 91.94% of demand, leaving a nursing shortage rate of 8.06%. The highest shortage level is among licensed practical nurses (20%), followed by registered nurses (10%). The workforce supply for all advanced practice registered nurse (APRN) and nurse practitioner (NP) roles surpasses the demand.

Here are the nursing shortage statistics for 2026:

Nursing Shortage Statistics Over the Decade (2036)

Over a decade, the shortage of registered nurses is expected to be reduced by half (from 8% to 4%, nationally). Simultaneously, the shortage of licensed practical nurses will double, reaching 28%. The excess supply of APRNs is expected to increase, reaching a 67% surplus for all nurse practitioners. 

Here is the data relating to the 2036 nursing shortage:

Furthest Nursing Shortage Statistics (2038)

The overall supply of nursing professionals is set to increase by 2038 (latest estimate), with the registered nurse supply rising by 1%, bringing the national shortage to 3%. The shortage of LPNs will further worsen, plummeting to a historic low of 30%. At the other end of the spectrum, all APRN and NP roles will maintain the growth in excess of demand, with the supply of women’s health nurse practitioners reaching more than double the demand.

 

You can consult the expected trends in the nursing shortage by 2038 below:

The shortage of nursing staff generally translates into increased demand and, consequently, a better job outlook for RNs and LPNs. If you want to capitalize on the current opportunity, our guide on how to become a licensed practical nurse might help you. But if your goal is to obtain your RN licensure, you’ll find everything you need to know from our articles on how to get an ADN or how to earn a BSN degree.

If you want to complete your education in a way that accommodates your personal routine and needs, you can choose the hybrid programs provided by Nightingale College.

• The 12-month PN Diploma Program includes the online instruction and on-ground supervised field practice necessary to take the NCLEX-PN and become a licensed practical nurse.
• The BSN Program is a 3-year flexible learning option that focuses on concept-based theory, skill-based intervention preparation, case-based preparation, and direct-focused client care to prepare you to sit for the NCLEX-RN.
• If you are already an LPN and want to advance to the RN position, we offer a 16-month fast-track via the LPN-to-ASN program that prepares you for the NCLEX-RN. 

However, if you want to increase your job opportunities as an RN, you can earn your BSN by learning with our 100% online RN-to-BSN track, which you can complete in as few as 12 months.

Nursing Shortage by State: Which Regions Suffer the Most?

According to the comprehensive HRSA report on Nurse Workforce Projections, there are significant differences across states regarding the projected number of RNs.

You can use the map below to find the projected nursing shortage rate for each US state from 2026 up to 2038:

 

It is worth noting that the almost 4 million registered nurses are distributed differently across the US. There are entire regions with a surplus of RNs, along with cities where job growth remains high, just because the number of nurses there can barely meet the community's basic medical needs.

States with the Highest Nursing Shortage

Here is the list of states projected to have the highest nursing shortage rate in 2026, along with their associated shortage or surplus percentages and net deficits for registered nurses: 

Judging by absolute numbers, the highest number of nurses needed by each state, the ranking order changes drastically:

States with the Lowest Nursing Shortage

At the opposite pole, among the states with the lowest net nursing shortage are Nebraska, with an estimated shortage of just 1,480 RNs for 2026, followed by Ohio (estimated shortage of 1,580 RNs), Maine (1,620 RNs short of meeting the demand), and New Hampshire (with 2,000 fewer nurses than its demand). Ranked by nurses' occupancy rate, Ohio (under 1% shortage) is leading, followed by New York (under 3%), Indiana (5%), New Jersey (5%), and Texas (6%).

There are also states with no projected nursing shortage in 2026. Illinois is expected to have an excess of 9,370 RNs over demand, equivalent to an 8% staff surplus at the state level. Massachusetts will have 7,790 more RNs than required, resulting in an 11% staff surplus. Utah will also have 6,010 more RNs than needed, equivalent to an 11% surplus, followed by Wyoming with 5,450 extra RNs, equal to a staggering 103% surplus.

Ranked by 2026 adequacy rate, Wyoming has the highest surplus (103%), followed by the District of Columbia (74%), Alaska (46%), Vermont (38%), and Hawaii (33%).

Projected Nursing Shortage by State Over Time (2026-2038)

Below is a complete list of US states with nursing shortages and those with a surplus of registered nurses, as well as the projected workforce development over a decade (2026-2036):

The furthest projection currently available, as per the HRSA data, is for the year 2038, where the nursing shortage by state will look as follows:

 

The Unseen Impact of the Nursing Shortage

While a net staff deficit in a state may prove outstanding, you should never forget that the percentage of satisfied demand best assesses the real impact of nursing shortages. The absolute number of nurses needed must be considered in the context of a state’s population and in relation to the requirements of the current regional healthcare systems. 

This is why we should consider the current 2026 nursing shortage in Georgia (12%) to be more impactful than in California (13%), even though the proportional adequacy rate is marginally lower. 

Additionally, nursing shortages are not just a state-level issue. Even in states where supply exceeds demand, severe shortages are still common, particularly in rural areas and smaller towns.

Fresh nursing graduates are typically interested in working in urban areas, where they have easier access to better-paying jobs and enjoy more opportunities for career advancement. This leaves hospitals in rural areas severely understaffed. 

The lack of professionals is not the only issue smaller towns encounter. Rural areas generally have more residents aged 65+ compared to urban and suburban areas. Also, the older population in suburban counties has increased due to large shares of adults relocating. 

Therefore, rural hospitals (even in states that foresee a surplus of nurses by 2038) are left in a difficult situation: they have an increasing number of patients to attend to, most of them older and with specific health issues, and no nurses to fill the positions. So, the predictions remain grim: rural areas nationwide face nursing shortages.

However, nursing shortage rates in metropolitan areas are expected to stagnate in the long run, despite the higher number of applicants and the currently lower demand. Here is how the nursing shortage rates in metropolitan areas compare to those in non-metropolitan areas:

• In 2026, the projected nursing shortage in non-metro areas is projected to be 25%, compared with only 5% in metro areas. 
• Over a decade (2026-2036), the shortage for non-metro and metro areas is projected to be 14% and 2%, respectively. 
• By 2038, the nursing shortage in non-metro areas is expected to decrease to 11%, while effectively stagnating at 2% in metro areas. 

Thus, non-metropolitan areas face greater nursing occupancy demands but are also expected to see the most progress.

How Long Will the Nursing Shortage Last?

If the current trend continues and no changes are made, we can expect the nursing shortage to persist well into the next decade. According to the current HRSA dataset, the current unmet demand for nurses aligns with future trends in nursing shortages. The rift between the supply of nurses and the demand generated by the industry and future demographic changes is projected to either remain or increase over time. 

Here is a year-by-year overview of the nursing workforce occupancy rate by role, spanning from 2023 to 2038:

 

In short, over a period of 12 years (2026-38), the occupancy rate for registered nurses will decrease by half (3% in 2038, compared to 6%). The shortage of licensed practical nurses will more than quadruple (increasing from 7% in 2026 to 30% in 2038). The workforce supply of advanced practice nurses and nurse practitioners will exceed demand (by more than 100%).

Why Is There a Nursing Shortage in the US?

It is a promising time for aspiring nurses and for professionals aiming for key positions in education, administration, and management, as experienced nurses retire.  

Even if most US states keep up with the demand, some regions, such as the southern and western ones, are expected to face higher shortages of registered nurses.

Since the average patient is older and requires complex care, the nursing team must be larger and well-trained for challenging settings, more difficult patients, higher standards, and new technologies. 

But the list of factors contributing to the nursing shortage is much longer: 

• The aging population changes demographics. As people age, the demand for complex care grows (especially for various chronic conditions). At the same time, the number of Americans aged 65+ is projected to increase faster than any other age group from 2024 to 2054, doubling the elderly population registered from 1973 to 2023 and reaching a total of 74 million people.
• The retirement of more than 1 million nurses by 2030 (according to the HRSA blog), with over 50% of RNs being 50 and older (the average age of RNs is 52), according to the National Nursing Workforce Study.
• Nursing school enrollment is not growing fast enough to meet the projected demand for RN and APRN services, and the healthcare industry needs more nurse educators, researchers, and primary care providers.
• Since the majority of nurses are women (over 86%, according to the National League for Nursing), they will generally cut back or leave their workplace during childbearing periods. And, while some may return, others move to another occupation.
• The ongoing nurse bullying and violence taking place in healthcare environments can discourage new and existing candidates from pursuing their desired nursing career, according to the Nursing Shortage study published by the National Library of Medicine.  
• The nursing faculty shortage directly affects the number of future nurses and RNs enrolled yearly. According to the American Association of Colleges of Nursing’s report on Enrollment and Graduation in Baccalaureate and Graduate Programs in Nursing, almost 92,000 qualified applicants from baccalaureate and graduate nursing programs were turned away in 2021-2022 due to faculty shortages and not enough clinical sites, classroom space, and budget.
• Nurse burnout and stress increase due to insufficient staffing, which impacts job satisfaction and forces many RNs to change or leave this profession. Many data-backed studies show that enhancing nursing skills (through higher education), empowering RNs, and balancing the patient-to-nurse ratio are linked to better patient outcomes, fewer medical errors, and lower patient mortality rates. And, of course, lower nursing shortages.

Solutions for the Nursing Shortage

This national problem within the healthcare ecosystem requires sustained efforts across several areas, including education, policy and regulations, delivery systems, and strong collaboration among nurse leaders, educational institutions, government, and the media.   

These collaborative efforts seem to be directed toward several long-term and short-term solutions, such as:

1. Proper patient-to-nurse ratios

Nurse staffing is a crucial health policy that ensures the delivery of high-quality patient care, as the Institute of Medicine concluded in its reports. These policies depend on many factors and are determined by healthcare providers. Fortunately, many US states have begun taking action and introducing legislation to ensure an optimal nurse-to-patient ratio. 

However, it is left to each state to decide whether staffing is appropriate for patient needs and high-quality care. At the same time, the American Nurses Association prefers to leave the decision to nurses working in each hospital, since they know their workplaces best.

One exception is California, which has legally set minimum nurse-to-patient ratios that must be followed at all times. The ratio in a critical care unit must be 1:2 or fewer, while for emergency departments, it must be 1:4 or fewer. As a result of California passing this legislation, nurse employment rose by 15%. Also, occupational illness and injury rates among nurses fell by 30%.

1. Encouraging males and disadvantaged groups to pursue a nursing career

According to data published by the National League for Nursing, most nurses currently are female (86.4%) and white (58.6%). 

While not an issue in itself, a disproportionate distribution of nursing roles across the population can affect patient outcomes and workplace dynamics, and may lead to shortages due to factors such as childbearing or a region's specific demographics.

The solution is to provide the necessary resources and support to enable previously disadvantaged and discouraged groups to enter and pursue a nursing career. 

At Nightingale College, we understand the industry-wide importance of inclusivity and continuously strive to provide nursing preparation for as diverse a population as possible. As our college performance data shows, our students and staff are significantly more varied than current industry estimates, especially in racial integration. 

1. Opportunities for nurses who want to become faculty educators

Solving the faculty shortage will help solve the general nursing shortage – there’s an increased demand for MSN-level nursing professionals to educate the next generation.

According to AACN’s report, 91,938 qualified applicants were turned away from baccalaureate and graduate nursing programs between 2021 and 2022 due to insufficient numbers of faculty, clinical sites, classroom space, clinical preceptors, and budget constraints.

Some states are already focusing on providing job opportunities for learners who choose to become nurse faculty after graduating. At Nightingale, we offer the online MSNEd Program for future nurses aspiring to work in non-clinical environments where they can guide the next generation of nurses. Becoming a nurse educator is an ideal choice for many people, as it is one of the least stressful and well-paid nursing jobs. 

Become a nurse educator online at Nightingale College!

1. Nurse empowerment

Institutions and facilities should be more focused on understanding the needs of RNs working in stressful environments to ensure they can provide the highest-quality, safest care to all patients in the long run. To succeed, it has been proven that working in a motivating and empowering environment can sustain these efforts. If you want to pursue a career in healthcare but do not prefer stressful environments, you can look into the least stressful nursing jobs in the current industry.

Empowerment and greater autonomy, including in deciding staffing ratios, can significantly reduce burnout and the desire to leave the profession. One sure way for hospitals to achieve this goal is to earn Magnet Recognition. This means 100% of nurse managers have a BSN or higher degree and must provide proof of plans to increase their BSN workforce to 80%.

Earn your BSN degree at Nightingale College!

1. Facilitating access to education for more aspiring nurses

There is a growing number of educational facilities and nursing programs that aim to fill all vacant positions and attract more aspiring nurses. With several enrollment periods each year, these educational efforts aim to produce as many prepared nurses as possible. 

Access to education is now simplified through accredited hybrid or online programs that prepare future nurses, regardless of where they are located, as well as on-campus programs. These options are ideal for RNs who want to earn a BSN while continuing to work or with a busy schedule. At the same time, these nursing programs offer hands-on training through experiential learning. 

Improve your credentials and continue your education with our RN-to-BSN Program!

1. Financial help for nurses who want to further their education and pursue advanced roles

Offering as many opportunities as possible to nurses is another way to address the nursing shortage in the US. Having the chance to advance their careers and feel more satisfied with their responsibilities may lead to lower turnover. For example, nurses may not leave their profession if they feel appreciated in their jobs. 

That is why many learning facilities and educational institutions offer financial aid, grants, scholarships, and loan programs to aspiring nurses or nurses seeking specialized positions with greater autonomy and responsibility through BSN or MSN programs.

Strengthening these efforts on all levels and working toward more accessible education and the best policies to ensure optimal conditions and high-quality patient care will help nurses pursue their dream careers with more flexibility and motivation, slowly and surely solving the national nursing shortage.